Analyze the spreadsheet to see the city it built

Urban Feasibility Report // 2024

Analyze the spreadsheet to see the city it built

When architectural reality meets the cold logic of an Excel cell, the margins of our lives are decided years before we move in.

The Wardrobe Door Test

“Is there a reason the balcony is larger than the second bedroom?”

“The developer called it a ‘lifestyle terrace’ in the brochure. It was designed to maximize the visible glass area from the street.”

“But the wardrobe door hits the bed frame. We measured it twice.”

“Most people who rented in this stack during the first phase were using that room as a home office or a nursery. The door clearance wasn’t a primary concern in the initial absorption report.”

In a tower located in the eastern quadrant of Jumeirah Village Circle, there are ninety-one studio apartments, sixty-four one-bedroom apartments, and exactly seven two-bedroom units. The building was completed ago. It features a facade of grey composite panels, floor-to-ceiling windows with a slight blue tint, and a lobby floor made of 60x60cm polished porcelain tiles that mimic the appearance of Carrara marble.

The elevators are finished in brushed stainless steel. In the hallway of the fourteenth floor, the air conditioning is set to 21 degrees Celsius, and the carpet is a low-pile nylon weave in a shade the manufacturer calls ‘Thunder Cloud.’

91

64

7

Unit Distribution in JVC Tower: The disproportionate scarcity of family-sized units.

The family of four standing in the second bedroom of Unit 1402 represents a demographic that the building’s original feasibility model did not prioritize. The father, a logistics manager for a shipping firm in Jebel Ali, carries a retractable metal measuring tape. The mother, who teaches primary science, holds a notebook where she has sketched the dimensions of a bunk bed.

They have spent the last three Saturdays visiting fourteen different buildings within a six-kilometer radius. In every instance, they have encountered the same structural reality: a surplus of space for single occupants and a profound scarcity of space for anyone else.

The Logic of the Total GFA

At that time, the analyst was tasked with building a financial model for a plot of land purchased for AED 22,450,000. To understand how a city ends up with too many studios, one must understand the internal logic of a residential feasibility study.

The process begins with the Total GFA-Gross Floor Area-which is the maximum amount of square footage the developer is permitted to build on a specific plot according to municipal zoning laws. Once the GFA is established, the analyst applies a ‘net-to-gross’ ratio, usually around 80%, to account for corridors, elevator shafts, and mechanical rooms. The remaining square footage is the ‘sellable’ or ‘leasable’ area.

The Studio Yield

AED 112.5

Per Square Foot

The 2-Bed Yield

AED 77.2

Per Square Foot

In the model for this JVC tower, the analyst looked at the prevailing market rents. At that time, a studio might rent for AED 45,000, while a two-bedroom might rent for AED 85,000. On the surface, the two-bedroom generates more revenue. However, the studio occupies only 400 square feet, while the two-bedroom occupies 1,100 square feet.

When the analyst calculates the yield per square foot, the studio generates AED 112.5 per square foot. The two-bedroom generates only AED 77.2 per square foot. In the logic of the spreadsheet, every square foot converted from a two-bedroom into a studio increases the projected Return on Investment (ROI) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).

Furthermore, studios have a higher ‘absorption speed.’ They are easier to fill during the initial lease-up phase because the entry-level price point is lower, which pleases the bank providing the construction loan.

The Ghosts of Old Calculations

The analyst, whose name was probably something like Marcus or Omar, did not intend to make life difficult for a family of four in . He was simply optimizing for a set of variables provided by his superiors. He accounted for the cost of MEP-mechanical, electrical, and plumbing-which is higher for studios because each unit requires its own bathroom and kitchenette.

Even with those increased costs, the ‘yield per square foot’ metric dictated a heavy tilt toward smaller units. He submitted the spreadsheet, the board of directors approved it, the construction company poured the concrete, and the building became a permanent physical fact.

Marcus or Omar has likely changed jobs twice since that spreadsheet was saved. He might now be working in private equity or renewable energy. He does not live in the building he helped define. He does not have to figure out how to fit a wardrobe and a bunk bed into a room that was technically designed to be a ‘multipurpose study.’

The city is full of these ghosts of old calculations. When I spent yesterday afternoon alphabetizing my spice rack-moving the Aleppo pepper behind the allspice and ensuring the cumin was easily accessible-I was struck by how much we crave a logical order that matches our actual usage of a space. You put the salt where you can reach it while the pan is hot. But in urban development, the ‘salt’ was placed five years ago by someone who wasn’t planning on cooking.

The Upfront Liquidity Wall

Families moving through the current market find themselves squeezed into the gaps left behind by these outdated assumptions. The budget they have-perhaps AED 110,000 or AED 125,000-is a significant amount of money. It should, in a rational world, buy a certain standard of dignity and space.

But because the stock was built to satisfy the IRR requirements of , the available two-bedrooms are rare, and because they are rare, their prices are inflated far beyond the reach of the median salary. This creates a secondary frustration: the cash flow crunch.

Even when a family finds a rare, appropriately sized unit, the traditional payment structures of the city demand a massive upfront liquidity event. The security deposit, the agency fee, the DEWA connection, and the first rent cheque often total forty percent of a family’s annual housing budget, all due in a single forty-eight-hour window.

The building won’t change its walls, so the financial structure must change its timing.

Pay rent by credit card with SplitRent

Many tenants are now looking for ways to bypass this historical bottleneck. They seek platforms that allow them to align their largest expense with their monthly income. This is why more families are choosing to use digital solutions. It is a digital solution to a physical problem: the building won’t change its walls, so the financial structure must change its timing.

The Cycle of Optimization

The tower in JVC has a rooftop gym with three treadmills and a set of dumbbells that go up to twenty kilograms. There is a swimming pool that stays in the shade for a day because of the neighboring building’s height. These amenities were also included in the spreadsheet. They were ‘value-adds’ designed to justify a five percent premium on the studio rents.

In Unit 1402, the teacher notices a smudge on the window. She looks out at the neighboring plot, which is currently a fenced-off rectangle of sand. A sign on the fence depicts a rendered image of a future building. It looks remarkably like the one she is standing in. It has the same blue-tinted glass and the same ‘lifestyle terraces.’

Somewhere, in a different glass-walled office, another analyst is currently looking at a spreadsheet. This analyst is seeing that three-bedroom apartments are currently showing a twenty percent spike in demand because so many families are desperate for space.

However, the analyst is also seeing that the cost of construction materials-reinforced steel and ready-mix concrete-has risen by twelve percent. To maintain the developer’s profit margin, the analyst is once again tweaking the unit mix.

🏗️

+12%

Rise in Material Costs

Result: Three-bedrooms are shrunk by 10 square meters to preserve margins.

The three-bedrooms are being shrunk by ten square meters each. The ‘maid’s room’ is being re-labeled as a ‘third bedroom.’ The spreadsheet is being optimized for the reality of , but the building it produces won’t be ready until . By then, the families of will have moved elsewhere, or their children will have grown, or the market will have shifted again.

Physical stock is the slowest-moving record of past financial assumptions. It is a heavy, concrete memory of what a banker thought was a good idea half a decade ago. When you walk through a neighborhood and wonder why every apartment feels like a shoebox with a view, you are not looking at a failure of architecture. You are looking at a successful execution of a feasibility model.

The teacher closes her notebook. Her husband retracts the measuring tape with a sharp clack that echoes in the small, empty room. They decide they cannot make the bunk beds work here. They will have to look further out, perhaps to a community built earlier, when the land was cheaper and the spreadsheets were more generous with square footage.

As they leave, the real estate agent checks his watch. He has four more viewings scheduled for this afternoon. All of them are for the studios. Those viewings will go much faster. The occupants don’t bring measuring tapes. They only bring a suitcase and a laptop. They fit perfectly into the analyst’s dream.

The city continues to rise, one cell at a time, governed by formulas that prioritize the speed of money over the size of a childhood. We navigate these spaces as if they were natural, as if the walls were placed by some geological force. But they weren’t. They were placed by a cursor moving across a grid of cells, dragging a formula down to the bottom of a column, ensuring that the final number turned green.

The concrete remembers a spreadsheet that the neighborhood has already forgotten.

If we are to change how our cities feel, we have to change what the spreadsheet rewards. Until then, we are all just trying to fit our lives into the margins of someone else’s calculation, looking for a way to pay for a space that wasn’t quite built for us, using whatever tools-financial or digital-we can find to bridge the gap between the building we have and the life we need to lead.

The family walks back to their car. The sun reflects off the blue glass of ninety-one studios, each one a perfect, identical monument to a yield-per-square-foot target that was met, filed, and forgotten years ago. The teacher looks at the notebook one last time before putting it in her bag. She hasn’t crossed out the bunk beds yet. She is just looking for a different spreadsheet to live in.